CLARITY Act chances of passage this year falls to 50% after Trump’s new demands

The CLARITY Act, the crypto industry’s most important bill in Congress, is running out of time.

The bill, which would establish federal rules for the crypto industry, is increasingly at risk of slipping deeper into the 2026 election year amid renewed partisan fights and a new demand from President Donald Trump that has made an already difficult path more uncertain.

As a result, crypto firm Galaxy Digital has cut its estimate of the bill becoming law this year to 50%, down from 60% earlier in June. The firm said the downgrade was tied mainly to the Senate calendar, not to a collapse in negotiations over the legislation’s substance.

Meanwhile, participants on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket have adopted an even more skeptical outlook, currently pricing the probability that the legislation will become law this year at just 44%.

Senate calendar tightens

The primary obstacle facing the digital asset framework is time. Lawmakers are confronting a severely truncated schedule before departing Washington for the traditional late-summer recess.

In a recent note to clients, Galaxy Digital researchers emphasized that the downgrade in their forecast stems strictly from scheduling realities.

For the legislation to clear the upper chamber, it requires a unified text bridging the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, followed by a formal floor debate and a potentially lengthy amendment process. Any final Senate product would then need subsequent approval in the House of Representatives.

However, the timeline for these maneuvers is rapidly evaporating.

Analysts note that Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to formally schedule debate time by the first week of July to ensure a final vote before the August break. Failing to secure a firm commitment for July floor time would likely push consideration into September.

Historically, advancing complex or contentious financial regulations becomes exceedingly difficult in the immediate run-up to a national election.

Currently, the legislation remains stalled on the Senate calendar, where it was placed after advancing out of the Banking Committee in mid-May. No procedural motions to initiate debate have been filed.

Trump’s demand adds pressure

CLARITY Act’s delay is also exacerbated by fierce competition for the Senate’s most valuable commodity: floor time.

Galaxy Digital noted that the digital asset bill is currently vying for attention against several urgent national security and domestic policy priorities, including the annual defense authorization act and the reauthorization of key surveillance programs under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).

Complicating matters further is an unexpected political standoff involving President Donald Trump, which threatens to derail the legislative queue.

Trump recently declared his opposition to a bipartisan housing bill unless lawmakers concurrently pass the SAVE Act. The housing bill had sailed through both chambers with overwhelming support, but its signing was abruptly canceled by the US president.

The SAVE Act is a deeply contentious elections bill that would mandate strict documentary proof of US citizenship for voter registration, as well as new photo identification requirements for federal ballots.

While the measure narrowly passed the Republican-controlled House earlier this year, it faces steep opposition in the Senate, where it lacks the 60 votes necessary to bypass a filibuster.

By tying the broadly supported housing legislation to the polarizing voting measure, the president has injected a volatile fight into the pre-recess schedule.

Market observers note that this type of high-stakes political maneuvering inevitably consumes leadership’s attention and crowds out specialized sector legislation such as the CLARITY Act.

CLARITY Act still needs work

Even if Senate leaders find floor time and the Trump-driven standoff eases, the crypto market-structure bill still faces unresolved policy fights that could determine whether it has enough votes to pass.

Democratic lawmakers continue to press for tougher ethics rules, stronger conflict-of-interest provisions, and tighter anti-money laundering standards. Those concerns have gained urgency as digital asset ventures tied to political figures draw greater scrutiny in Washington.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been among the bill’s sharpest critics, arguing that the current version would weaken safeguards against illicit finance. She said:

“Our adversaries exploit crypto to move billions. The Clarity Act, as it’s currently written, would make this problem worse. Congress should be strengthening illicit finance standards, not creating new loopholes.”

An amendment from Sen. Chris Van Hollen that sought to tighten conflict-of-interest rules failed during committee consideration. Sens. Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have also pushed for enforceable ethics standards as part of any final agreement.

Law enforcement concerns remain another obstacle. Some lawmakers want changes to developer-protection language tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which is designed to prevent software developers and infrastructure providers from being treated as financial intermediaries when they do not control customer funds.

Supporters say those protections are needed to avoid holding open-source developers responsible for activity they cannot direct or stop. Critics counter that the language could limit enforcement against illicit finance, money laundering, and sanctions evasion in decentralized finance.

The disputes do not make passage impossible. But they make the vote count harder.

The bill is expected to lose at least some Republican support, including from senators who oppose the broader framework or object to federal digital asset rules. That leaves supporters dependent on a durable bloc of Democrats to clear the Senate.

Any unresolved fight over ethics, illicit finance, or developer liability could weaken that coalition at the point when the bill can least afford defections.

Industry Keeps Pushing

Despite the deteriorating odds, cryptocurrency firms and digital asset advocacy organizations are refusing to concede the calendar year.

Crypto firms’ lobbying efforts on Capitol Hill have accelerated in recent weeks, aimed at pressuring Senate leadership into scheduling a summer vote.

Payments company Ripple recently deployed a mobile advertising campaign, dubbing a vehicle the “Clarity Truck,” to circle the capital and broadcast messages promoting the legislation as lawmakers conclude their weekly sessions.

The company framed the bill as a way to protect consumers, support responsible digital asset development, and keep the US competitive in financial technology.

Other industry groups have made a similar argument. They say the absence of federal market structure rules has left US crypto firms dependent on court rulings, agency enforcement actions, and state-level requirements. They also argue that uncertainty has pushed activity toward overseas jurisdictions with clearer frameworks.

Supporters in Congress have leaned into that message. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a pro-crypto lawmaker, has said the US should not fall behind Europe, the UK, and the United Arab Emirates, all of which have moved to establish digital asset regimes.

The lobbying campaign reflects the industry’s view that July may be the last practical window for action this year.

Once Congress returns in September, the midterm campaign will dominate Washington, and Senate leaders may be less willing to devote floor time to a complex crypto bill that still attracts opposition from consumer advocates and some Democrats.

Crypto market looks to Washington

The uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act is unfolding during a weaker period for digital asset markets, giving the bill significance beyond Capitol Hill.

Market analysts have argued that the passage or failure of the legislation could influence whether the current crypto downturn stabilizes or deepens. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week, extending a decline of more than 50% from its October peak of $125,000.

The selloff has revived questions about how much support remains from institutional buyers after a cycle shaped by spot exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury purchases, and broader Wall Street participation.

Grayscale has described the current downturn as a cyclical pullback, but the firm has also tied the market’s recovery path to several policy and macroeconomic variables.

In its baseline scenario, the CLARITY Act clears the Senate, Strategy takes steps to strengthen its balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve avoids further rate increases. Under that outcome, Bitcoin may already be close to a bottom.

The downside scenario is more difficult. If the CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, digital asset treasury companies continue to deleverage, and inflation forces the Fed to resume rate increases, crypto prices could face additional pressure.

Grayscale does not expect a drawdown as severe as the roughly 80% declines seen in previous cycles, citing a more mature market structure and deeper institutional demand. Still, the firm sees regulatory progress as one factor that could help shape sentiment.

That has made the CLARITY Act one of the most closely watched bills in crypto. For investors, the legislation is no longer only a Washington policy fight. It has become part of the market’s broader search for a catalyst that could restore confidence.